The Bet Tree
A method for working with an uncertain future.
A founder chooses a direction before the business has proved itself. A precise plan pretends that future is already known. A bet does not. A bet is a measurable claim about an uncertain future, made so the founder can choose actions and check the claim.
The Bet Tree turns that claim into one checkable week, and, when one week is no longer enough, into a tree of linked claims.
Author: Vadim Nareyko.
Start here
- Read the method.
- Copy the blank sheets in templates/.
- Fill one week. Leave unknown things written as unknown.
- On Friday, record one of four outcomes and write the next bet.
If you work with an assistant that follows written instructions, the prompts in prompts/ ask the questions and wait for your answers. They do not choose the numbers for you.
What you leave with after one week
- A bet for the week, written before the work starts.
- The action your team will take, kept separate from the signal a real customer gives back.
- A success line and a safety line, both written in advance.
- One decision: scale, change the claim, stop and repair, or gather more of the same evidence.
- One line in a journal, so next month you still know what was learned.
Two levels
| Level | Use it when | You finish with |
|---|---|---|
| Basic | You can still run the business from one weekly sheet | Week sheet and bet journal |
| Advanced | One sheet is no longer enough to choose a focus | Causal map, one constraint, and a short scorecard |
Move up because the basic sheet can no longer support a decision. Do not move up because the advanced sheets look more serious.
Teaching example
Subscription lunches is a classroom example. Every number there is a bet written before any market evidence. It is not a report of a real company.
Where the pieces come from
The method borrows working parts from nine older management systems and leaves the rest behind. The list, and what each part is used for, is in lineage.
License
This text is published so it can be read. A license that allows copying, translation, or commercial use has not been chosen yet. Until that choice is written in LICENSE, do not copy the text into another product.